世界经济形势发生深刻变化

The world economic landscape is going through profound changes

当前世界经济形势发生深刻变化。国际环境日趋复杂，不稳定性不确定性明显增加。全球贸易投资增长低迷，国际金融危机前，全球贸易增速是经济增速的2倍，危机后则与经济增速大体持平。国际组织预测2020年全球贸易下降30%左右，2021年仅反弹7.2%；全球直接投资下降40%，2021年继续下降5%—10%。民粹主义加剧，贸易保护主义升温，由传统行业向新兴产业、高技术产业扩展。国际投资限制加强。发达国家大力扶持制造业回流，出台相应政策，吸引汽车制造、装备制造、电子信息、生物医药等行业向国内回归，疫情进一步加剧全球产业链供应链调整。

The international environment is increasingly complex, marked by a significant increase in instability and uncertainty. Global trade and investment growth is sluggish. Before the international financial crisis, global trade grew twice as fast as the global economy, but since then, growth in global trade and economy has roughly been on the same level. International organizations estimate that global trade would fall by about 30% in 2020, and will rebound by only 7.2% in 2021. Global direct investment would fall by 40%, with a further fall of 5% to 10% predicted for 2021. As populism and trade protectionism intensify, they are spreading from traditional industries to emerging and high-tech industries. Restrictions on international investment have been tightened. Developed countries are working vigorously to re-shore their manufacturing industries. They have unveiled policies to attract automobile and equipment manufacturing, electronic information, biomedicine, and other industries back home. Indeed, the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified adjustments to global supply chains and industry chains.

(Excerpts from Understanding the Great Trend of Economic Globalization and Expanding Opening Up on All Fronts by CPC Leadership Group of the Ministry of Commerce, Qiushi Journal, No. 01, 2021)

来源：《求是》英文版

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